← All Tools

The Pizza Principle

For decades, the cost of a slice of plain pizza and a single subway ride were remarkably intertwined. Has the link broken?

Subway Fare

Average Slice

Delta:

An Economic Anomaly

First observed in 1980 by Eric M. Bram, the "Pizza Principle" states that the average price of a slice of plain cheese pizza in New York City will generally match the cost of a single subway ride.

For nearly 40 years, the principle held with eerie accuracy. When the MTA raised the fare, local pizzerias would inevitably adjust their prices to match within a few months.

The Post-Pandemic Divergence

Since 2021, the connection has severed. A combination of massive supply chain issues for wholesale cheese and tomato paste, coupled with aggressive commercial rent hikes, pushed the average slice well past $3.00, while political pressure kept the MTA fare artificially suppressed at $2.75 until its late 2023 bump to $2.90.

What about the $1 slice?

The famous $1 slice (pioneered by 2 Bros) was always a loss-leader designed to crush local competition through extreme volume. With wholesale cheese costs up nearly 40% since 2019, almost all $1 spots have quietly raised prices to $1.50 or closed entirely. The $1 slice is dead.